ICO: 2018/19 Expected To Be The Second Year Of Surplus

Jan. 15, 2019

Coffee year 2018/19 is expected to be the second consecutive season of surplus, as global output, estimated at 167.47 million bags, exceeds world consumption, estimated at 165.18 million bags. However, given the stronger growth in demand, the surplus for 2018/19 is projected to be 2.29 million bags, around 1 million bags less than in 2017/18. This excess in supply continues to put downward pressure on prices that will likely continue over the next few months. After a decrease of 1.5% to 109.59 US cents/lb in November 2018, the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator fell sharply to 100.61 US cents/lb in December 2018. Prices for all group indicators declined in December 2018, with the largest decreases for Brazilian Naturals and Colombian Milds, which fell by 9.9% to 102.10 US cents/lb and by 8.2% to 127.86 US cents/lb, respectively. Other Milds decreased by 7.3% to 127.10 US cents/lb, reducing the differential with Colombian Milds to just 0.76 US cents/lb in December 2018. Robusta fell by 7.1% to 77.57 US cents/lb.

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