U.S. grocery unit sales are declining as financially strained consumers buy fewer products, according to a Bain & Company analysis conducted with NielsenIQ.

The findings do not measure vending, smart market or micro market sales. However, they provide convenience services operators with a broader view of how consumers are changing food and beverage purchasing behavior.

Grocery units sold fell 1.8% year-over-year in June. Bain said the decline represented a deterioration of nearly 2 percentage points within one year.

Unit sales dropped by about 2% in most months from February through June. The declines occurred across every U.S. region.

The volume contraction comes as grocery prices continue to increase between 2% and 3% annually. Grocery prices have risen a cumulative 33% since 2019, according to Bain.

Bain attributed the slowdown to mounting household budget pressure rather than one economic event. Reduced participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), something some convenience operators have leaned into, added pressure for some lower-income households late last year. Gas prices also increased 20% nationwide in March, according to the analysis. That increase further strained consumers facing higher costs and slower growth in disposable income.

Bain’s Consumer Lab survey found that 80% of Americans are trying to reduce spending. Twenty-eight percent said they are actively cutting grocery expenses.

The shift toward online grocery shopping may be contributing to smaller baskets because online shoppers typically purchase fewer items, Bain said. The company also identified increased use of glucagon-like peptide-1 weight-loss medications as another factor affecting grocery demand.

Bain said the decline has turned grocery retailing into a competition for market share, and that value-focused retailers are not insulated from lower unit demand. Bain said retailers and manufacturers will need to improve pricing, promotions, assortments, loyalty programs and private-label strategies.

For convenience services operators, those recommendations offer areas to evaluate rather than proven prescriptions. Operators can review whether customers are purchasing fewer items, shifting toward lower-priced products or responding differently to promotions.

Why this matters for convenience services operators

• Vending and micro market operators should separate revenue growth from unit growth when reviewing location performance. The reported decline in grocery sales shows that higher dollar sales can mask falling unit volume when prices are still increasing.
• Smart market operators should examine whether average basket size, units per transaction or purchase frequency has changed.
• While vending, smart market and micro market operators are not directly measured in Bain's research, they serve consumers facing the same broader household budget pressures — and, as convenience offerings, may feel the effects of price sensitivity even more than traditional retailers.