In February, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) daily price averaged US$2,947 per tonne, up by US$26 compared to the average price recorded in the previous month (US$2,921), and ranged between US$2,744 and US$3,051 per tonne, according to its Feb. 2015 Cocoa Market Review.
Cocoa prices started the month at a one year low of US$2,677 per tonne in New York as disappointing grindings data published in the middle of the previous month continued to weigh on cocoa futures prices. However, from the second trading session through to the second week of the month, cocoa futures prices followed an upward trend in prices.
While arrivals in the two ports of Côte d’Ivoire were strong in the first two months of 2015, disappointing purchases figures from Ghana, coupled with persistent concerns over dry weather conditions in some of the cocoa-producing areas in West Africa and their probable negative impact on the upcoming mid-crops, were the main fundamental reasons that influenced the increase in cocoa futures prices. Thus, during the last week of the month, cocoa futures prices attained a four-month high at US$3,001 per tonne in New York.
ICCO forecasts for 2014/2015
The ICCO Secretariat’s first forecasts for the current 2014/2015 cocoa year, published in the latest issue of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, envisage a supply deficit of around 17,000 tonnes.
World cocoa bean production is expected to decrease by almost three per cent to 4.232 million tonnes. Grindings are also forecast to decrease by 1.7% to 4.207 million tonnes.
If realized this would decrease the total statistical stocks of cocoa beans as at the end of the 2014/2015 cocoa year from 1.626 million tonnes in the previous season to 1.609 million tonnes, which would be equivalent to 38% of projected annual grindings for the current season.
