In June 2018, the ICO composite indicator decreased by 2.6% to an average of 110.44 US cents/lb, which is the lowest monthly average since December 2013. Prices for all coffee groups fell in June 2018, though the largest month-on-month decrease occurred for Brazilian Naturals, which declined by 3.7% to 115.10 US cents/lb. Global coffee production in 2017/18 is estimated at 158.56 million bags, 0.3% lower than in 2016/17. World exports amounted to 9.27 million bags in May 2018, compared with 10.59 million bags in May 2017, driven by a 32.5% decrease for shipments from Brazil, 25.7% for shipments from Honduras, and 55.2% for shipments from Indonesia.
The monthly average of the ICO composite indicator fell by 2.6% to 110.44 US cents/lb in June 2018, which is the lowest monthly average since December 2013. The daily composite indicator started at a high of 114.40 US cents/lb on 1 June, but quickly declined to 110.41 on 7 June. For the rest of the month, the daily composite indicator ranged between 108.98 US cents/lb and 110.72 US cents/lb before falling to 108.68 US cents/lb on 29 June. Prices in June are likely reflecting the greater availability of coffee on the international market from new crops for April-March producers, notably Brazil.
Prices for all group indicators fell in June 2018. The largest decrease occurred in the average price for Brazilian Naturals, which declined by 3.7% to 115.10 US cents/lb. Both Colombian Milds and Other Milds decreased by 1.2% to 138.55 US cents/lb and 134.03 US cents/lb, respectively. The monthly average Robusta price fell by 3% to 86.07 US cents/lb. The average arbitrage in June, as measured on the New York and London futures markets, rose by 0.3% to 42.79 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, intra-day volatility of the ICO composite indicator price decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%.
